The Outsider's View by Russell Carroll

Revolutionary? (October 6, 2005)

Naming a gaming system "Revolution" really takes some confidence. If the system is just a technological step forward it will get panned by critics and users alike who will point out that better graphics don't make it all that revolutionary. On the other hand, if the system really is different enough to make people's jaws drop in unbelief, it will likely risk alienation of the extreme gamer who doesn't deal well with change. Who instead feels much more comfortable playing the same game over and over...as long as the graphics are different, it has a different title, and there are some minor variations from the last time they played it.

So is the announcement of Nintendo's new control scheme Revolutionary? In some ways it absolutely is. It left people scratching their heads, and on first glance most everyone felt at least slightly uncomfortable about the new way to interface with games. However, the approach, that of being innovative with control to allow for the games to be different is something that Nintendo has been pushing for some time. You might say that the N64's introduction of digital analog sticks was the beginning, or that it went back to Virtual Boy, or maybe even back to Rob the robot. However, as you consider the evolution of gaming, it is pretty easy to see that innovation in control has been a continual point of focus for Nintendo.

Currently Nintendo's DS has shown that offering different types of controls can create a gaming experience that will reach out to people who typically don't play games on consoles. This group of computer gamers is the same group of gamers that is more likely to play Bejeweled than it is to play Halo by an order of magnitude. The group has been called 'casual gamers' because they don't devote large amounts of time to gaming, and they don't commit a lot of money to updating their hardware so that they can play the newest games. However, they do commit money to buying the games, and 'casual games' have become big business. In fact, if you look at the numbers a compelling argument could be made that casual gamers are the mainstream gamers, and that the console gamers have become more of a niche segment of the overall gaming market.

The Revolution isn't really about a cool controller, though that is a part of it. What Nintendo is trying to do is to take the group of casual gamers (mainstream gamers as I describe them) and get them playing on a console. There are of course some hurdles to overcome. Playing console games requires a higher financial investment than playing them on an already purchased computer.

In addition, consoles have typically been the domain of the hardcore gamer, who lives in the basement emerging only for food and then returning to their latest game. As you can probably guess, the majority of people don't want to be associated with that type of stigma, which is one of the main reasons that the market for games has been flattening and has been seeing decreasing revenues. Nintendo has started this generation of games aiming to overcome these hurdles and build on their loyal fan base who already looks to Nintendo to innovate, by adding people who normally wouldn't play games on a console.

So the question is, will it work? Certainly Nintendo has its work cut out for them. However, as I've continued to consider the Revolution I think that there is a good chance that Nintendo will pull this off and may even end up as the best selling console of this next generation.

Why?
A week ago I went to visit a friend. This friend rarely ever plays computer games, though I've convinced them to try a few Indie games and they've purchased games like Zuma and Hambsterball. While they don't really get into games, they do like electronics. They showed me their newest score, a video card that they had bought along with an antennae that allowed them to watch HD TV from the airways on their Computer. The cost was over $200 total, but the excitement of something cool and different was more than adequate to overcome the shelling out of the dough. In considering this person, and the many who come to my house I've made a couple of realizations.

First off, the majority of people don't play video games. Maybe that is because of my age, or my friends, or the poor neighborhood I live in, but the reality is, that unlike when I was a kid, most of the people I know now don't play. Second off, people like things that are different. When people come over I often will convince them to take a look at Wik or Gish or one of the Indie games that really is different and/or innovative. They are willing to check it out, perhaps due to my enthusiasm or to the game just being different, but in either case, I've never had anyone who didn't come away genuinely interested and impressed.

So here is the big point...if I had a Revolution hooked up to the TV, would I want to show it to everyone? I would answer VERY strongly in the affirmative. Why? Because of the cool factor. Because of the technical coolness of the control scheme. Because like my favorite Independent games, it's innovative, different and interesting. Players, non-players, people I meet on the street, all of them would be getting a chance to feel for themselves what it is like to control a game with the new joystick if I had the system.

If I had a PS3 or XBox 360 would I show it to them? Well no, because the mainstream gamer (or casual as many people call them) doesn't care about the graphics being better or the online play being strengthened. To illustrate that last point, I'll mention that my brother is a programmer for Sony working with the PSP and PS3. I run Game Tunnel and have worked in the Indie game industry. However, I rarely ever invite my Father down to check out a new game on my consoles despite his closeness to people in the industry. In addition, when I rent a console game I typically don't have my wife take a look at it. But I don't hesitate to show an interesting indie game to either of them. Why? Because they see all the games as the same, and better graphics are entirely lost on them. So why would I show them something they don't care about? The only games I show them are ones that are different, that provide some intrigue in what they do (Nintendogs is a great example of a recent game that meets this criteria).

I think Nintendo is positioning itself very well to access a market that hasn't been taped into, and the reality is that market they are aiming for is larger than the niche gamer market. It is the majority of the people on the planet. Nintendo is working hard to take console gaming mainstream. It really should come as no surprise that they are saying they hope people also get either a 360 or a PS3 in addition to a Revolution. They are not too concerned about owning the niche hardcore gaming market. The reality is, it's a comparatively small market that is shrinking in size, while the cost of making games for that segment of gamers is increasing in size, making the profit margins increasingly tiny.

Instead Nintendo is focusing on games that are cheaper to make for a much larger audience, and they're likely to take some of the hardcore market with them anyway, due to the probability of an improved gaming experience with their new control scheme.

Will they succeed? Success will likely be dependent on the quality of the games and their ability to take advantage of the new control scheme. It took almost six months for the DS to get on its current roll of turning out interesting game after interesting game, but it has lead to the systems pulling away from PSP in the marketplace over the last several months. In the end, the Revolution's success will likely mirror how the DS has succeeded in the market. Good games will determine whether Nintendo's plan works or not.

However, as has been he case with their other control innovations, if it works you can expect the rest of the market to follow, adapting what Nintendo does into their own systems once again. If Nintendo does succeed it will be a Revolution, but while the way games are played will be a major part of the revolution, the real revolution will be in the 'who' is playing console games.